Eurovision 2015 Semi Final Draw – An Analysis on the possible winners and losers.
With very few of the songs even selected for Eurovision 2015 can one infer who potentially maybe happy with the results of the today’s semi final draw in Vienna.
Well let’s start with the basics. If you are in Semi Final 1 on May 19th then you statistically have a better chance of qualifying for the Grand Final as this show will have 16 countries performing as opposed to Semi Final 2 that has 17 countries looking to be in the Top 10 qualifiers.
However let’s take a closer look at the draw. 4 countries have a 100% qualification record from the modern-day semi final system. They are Russia, Romania, Greece and Azerbaijan.
Of this exclusive group, 3 of them are in semi final 1 – Russia, Romania and Greece. So if they are to maintain their record, then it in essence leaves 7 places available for qualification from the remaining 13 countries. That gets tougher.
With Azerbaijan in Semi Final 2 you would expect them to run away with qualification. However when you look at the countries in semi final 2 they are lacking most of their big scoring neighbours like Russia, Georgia, Ukraine and Turkey (the last 2 through non participation). Favourable results for them are expected to come naturally from Malta, Cyprus and possibly Germany who will be voting in their semi final. Azerbaijan holding on to their 100% could be tested this year.
Let’s look at the qualification percentage records for each of the semi finals. What do I mean by that? Well of the countries in both semi-finals which have better qualification records in total? For semi-final 1 there is a 64% qualification rates for those countries as compared to that of semi final 2 that is lower at 44%. This would point to potentially some familiar faces in the Grand Final being missing if trends are replicated.
Scandinavian Separation – Semi Final 1 sees Finland and Denmark together and one could assume that Estonia will be favourable to them both. In Semi Final 2 you have Norway, Iceland and Sweden. That should be more favourable to them. Ireland tends to vote positively towards the Scandinavian countries, so you would have to say that Semi Final 2 works slightly better if you are Scandinavian.
The Balkans/Central Europe – This is an interesting mix. You would have to say that Montenegro and Slovenia seem somewhat isolated in Semi Final 2 when you compare it to Semi Final 1 that has Greece, Macedonia, Serbia, Albania, Moldova, Romania and Hungary all together. Montenegro qualified last year and they did it the hard way too. So can Knez do the same in Vienna?
Poland looks to have a strong diaspora vote presence in Semi Final 2. They should expect to score well from the public from Ireland, UK, Germany, Czech Republic, Lithuania and Latvia. If they send a good song/singer (like potentially Doda that we reported on several weeks ago) one could say that they have one foot in the Grand Final – that is if the juries don’t over ride their public vote, as is what happened in Ireland and the UK last year where Donatan & Cleo won the televote, yet the juries had them so low that they received no points from either country.
‘Warriors Divided’ – Well that was a lucky escape having Georgia in Semi Final 1 and Malta in Semi Final 2. Both songs have the same title – ‘Warrior’ – and are garnering much attention with die-hard fans for that. We could potentially see both songs in the Grand Final!
‘Island Solidarity’ – There are 5 island nations in this year’s contest and they all happen to be voting in Semi Final 2 – You have Ireland, Malta, Iceland, Cyprus and the United Kingdom (From the Big 5). This makes it interesting to see where their votes will go to and from whom they will receive their votes from.
‘Czech Mate’ – The Czech Republic have a zero % qualification record from the Semi Finals. Song and Singer dependent – this draw in Semi Final 2 gives them possibly one of their better chances of making the Grand Final. They can hopefully count on some points from Poland, Germany, Lithuania and Latvia – though not guaranteed. The draw may have increased their chances on qualifying.
Can Israel make the Final? Not since 2010 have Israel qualified for the grand final of the contest. Not even a former Eurovision Winner or Fan Favourite could take them there in 2011 and 2014 respectively. I think they would have had more natural votes in Semi Final 1. However with their large selection process ‘The Next Star’ beginning to be noticed by sites across Europe, they could get interest in their representative despite them not being an established act.
A Redundant yet ‘Guestimation’ on who may qualify based on recent records
Semi Final 1 is a lot easier to hazard a guess at who will qualify without hearing most songs
Greece, Moldova, Armenia, Serbia, Denmark, Romania, Russia, Albania, Georgia and Hungary. The Netherlands may find themselves in difficulty.
Semi Final 2 has the potential to be a blood bath as there are more connotations and permutations for results but here is a stab in the dark.
Norway, Lithuania, Malta, Azerbaijan (hmmm this could be an upset) Latvia, Poland, Iceland, Sweden, Ireland and Cyprus. Poland I would say is the only country that I could say is more likely to be in the final as it stands now.
So who do you think has the more difficult Semi Final to qualify from? Will Greece, Romania, Azerbaijan and Russia maintain their 100% qualification rate from the Semi Finals? Or is it all about the song?
Author/Editor in Chief Garrett Mulhall
Source : Eurovision Ireland
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