Analysis of Qualifiers from Semi-Final 2 at Eurovision 2016 based on voting patterns

ESC 2016 logo

The draws for the two semi-finals have taken place, and now the real work of predicting qualifiers and possible winners can now begin. As you’ll know, 10 will make it through, so in reality each song has a better than average chance of making it. Only eight or nine will go home. But who do we think the likely qualifiers are?

In this post, we’ll look at the countries in the second semi-final. You can see some stats on the first semi-final HERE. First, this is a table of the likelihood of qualifying, based on how the countries in each semi-final have voted for each other.






Australia, of course, has no form at all in the cut-throat business of semi-finals, so I’m ignoring them for this table.

Ukraine and Romania have always qualified from their semi-finals, so there’s nothing to reason the same won’t happen this year. Serbia has had wobbles in the past, but their qualification seems fairly safe. In the danger zone are Georgia, Albania and Poland. But judging by Poland’s official video Youtube hits, that might be enough to tip them over the finishing line.


So let’s now look at where the best places are in the draw, based on where the top 10 in each semi-final have been drawn. There are places to be drawn, and places to avoid. From this chart, let’s see where these are. The higher the line, the more likely to qualify.

2016 SF2 graph

Performing around fourth in this draw seems sure to qualify (unlike SF1), as does 18th and 19th.

From this graph, the most likely qualifiers will be Israel, Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Serbia, Ukraine, Georgia, Latvia, and one of Ireland and Romania (these last two are too close to call).

The worst place, it would seem, is fifth on in the draw, meaning by this method it doesn’t look good for Belarus.


So, taking the two sets of predictions together, here’s what could happen qualification-wise:

Certain: Albania, Denmark, Georgia, Latvia, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine

Possible: Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Ireland, Israel, Lithuania, Norway, Poland

ESC 2016 logoUnlikely: Belarus, Macedonia, Slovenia, Switzerland


Do you agree? Will there be a surprise qualifier? Or will the predicted songs get through?


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Author: John Stanton


Source: Eurovision Ireland

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