Did Not Qualify

3 ways to predict who will qualify for Eurovision 2022 from Semi Final 2 – and VOTE in our poll!

Tonight all the fun of the Eurovision Song Contest 2022 continues with the Second Semi Final, coming to the world live from breath-taking Turin, Italy at 21:00PM CET (make sure you check your local listings to find out where you can watch!)

With only 10 spots left in the final, Eurovision fans around the globe are desperate to find out who will be joining Armenia, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Italy, Lithuania, Moldova, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Ukraine and the United Kingdom in the final this Saturday… and we may already have an answer!

We recently published a similar post on predicting who will qualify from Semi Final 1 – and EVERY SINGLE WAY listed in that article was 70% accurate – so clearly there was something in it!! Today we’re going to apply the same measures to the countries competing in Semi Final 2 as well!

For some other ways to try and calculate , be sure to take a look at John’s editorial on stats for the 2nd Semi Final. Combining all of these factors may indeed help you work out who is destined for the final, and those whose dreams of Eurovision glory will end tonight.

YouTube

YouTube is every Eurovision fans’ best friend! From the moment the national final season starts, we’re using YouTube to watch performances and listen to our favourites – but these hits are also coming from people who don’t follow the contest and who are listening after hearing about the song in international press! These stats were calculated from the number of views on the entry’s official videos – which immediately means if a country released its music video only recently, they’re at a disadvantage. But as for most people YouTube will be their first point of contact with a new Eurovision song, here’s what YouTube suggests our Top 10 might look like:

  1. Sweden
  2. Serbia
  3. Romania
  4. Cyprus
  5. Belgium
  6. Azerbaijan
  7. Israel
  8. Australia
  9. Montenegro
  10. San Marino

Betting Odds

Book makers need to know their Eurovision odds – if money is changing hands, then they just have to be on the ball! Betting Odds are a fascinating way to see which countries people think will make the cut as they are calculated on the likelihood of something happening. For example a country like North Macedonia who often struggle to qualify for the final will have less favourable odds than usual Top 10 placers like Sweden and Italy. That being said, these odds shouldn’t be taken as fact and are not without risk… I always like to point out that in 2018, Cyprus started the year ranked 37th in the odds and sky rocketed up during rehearsals! At the moment, Europe’s bookies are saying our finalists will be:

  1. Sweden
  2. Poland
  3. Australia
  4. Estonia
  5. Serbia
  6. Czech Republic
  7. Finland
  8. Belgium
  9. Azerbaijan
  10. Cyprus

Past Qualification Rates

Past success is no guarantee of future success at Eurovision – but it also stands to reason that if country has been in the final more times than they haven’t, they clearly have an idea about how to get there! Every year we publish the qualification rates of Eurovision countries, updated to reflect the outcome of that year’s semi-finals, and they make for interesting reading… so based on the numbers, probability suggests these countries will get those last coveted spots in Europe’s favourite contest:

  1. Sweden
  2. Azerbaijan
  3. Australia
  4. Romania
  5. Serbia
  6. Israel
  7. Cyprus
  8. Malta
  9. Georgia
  10. Finland

Do you agree with any of the methods above? Or do you think they all totally wrong? Well guess what! You can have your say too below, by voting for your personal Top 10! Who is going to qualify tonight? Let us know below!

Author: James Scanlan
Source: Eurovision Ireland, YouTube, EurovisionWorld

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