Did Not Qualify

3 ways to predict who will qualify for Eurovision 2022 from Semi Final 1 – and VOTE in our poll!

Tonight’s the night! The First Semi Final of the Eurovision Song Contest will be coming to us live from beautiful Turin, Italy at 21:00PM CET (make sure you check your local listings to find out where you can watch!)

Although in a few hours we’ll know just who has made the cut, if there’s one thing Eurovision fans love to do it’s speculate and make predictions. There are literally hundreds of ways you could try and work it out, but for this article we’re just going to look at 3 sources that could potentially give us some hints on who is destined for the Top 10 in the final and who will languish in the semis. Are they right? Guess we’ll have to wait and see!

For some other ways to try and calculate , take a look at John’s editorial on stats – named for a Eurovision song that sadly didn’t make it to the final! If you’re trying to accurately guess who will get to the final, you’ll need to bear these in mind too!


From the moment the national final season starts, YouTube is every Eurovision fans’ best friend! We use it to watch performances and listen to our favourites but as more songs get the attention of the press, more hits are gained from people who don’t usually follow the contest throughout the year! These stats were calculated from the number of views on the entry’s official videos – which immediately means if a country released its music video only recently, they’re at a disadvantage. But as for most people YouTube will be their first point of contact with a new Eurovision song, here’s who YouTube thinks will qualify:

  1. Ukraine
  2. Austria
  3. The Netherlands
  4. Albania
  5. Armenia
  6. Greece
  7. Lithuania
  8. Portugal
  9. Bulgaria
  10. Moldova

Betting Odds

Let’s face it, if money changes hands, then bookies have to be on their game when working out who they think will make the cut! Betting Odds are a fascinating way to see which countries people think will get to Saturday night’s live final, and are calculated on the likelihood of something happening. Ergo, countries like Sweden and Italy that usually place in the Top 10 each year will immediately have better odds than somewhere like North Macedonia. That being said, these odds shouldn’t be taken as fact and are not without risk… I always like to point out that in 2018, Cyprus started the year ranked 37th in the odds and sky rocketed up during rehearsals! At the moment, the book keepers of Europe and beyond think our scoreboard will look a little like this:

  1. Ukraine
  2. Greece
  3. Norway
  4. The Netherlands
  5. Armenia
  6. Portugal
  7. Albania
  8. Moldova
  9. Latvia
  10. Austria

Past Qualification Rates

Of course, past success is no guarantee of future success at Eurovision – but if a country has qualified for the final more times than they haven’t, that can be an indicator they know enough about what they’re doing to get them back into the final of Europe’s favourite contest! Every year we publish the qualification rates of Eurovision countries, updated to reflect the outcome of that year’s semi-finals, and they make for interesting reading… so based on the numbers, probability suggests these countries will most likely be our finalists:

  1. Ukraine
  2. Greece
  3. Norway
  4. Armenia
  5. Denmark
  6. Moldova
  7. Albania
  8. Iceland
  9. Lithuania
  10. Austria

Do you agree with any of the methods above? Or do you think they all totally wrong? Well guess what! You can have your say too below, by voting for your personal Top 10! Who is going to qualify tonight? Let us know below!

Author: James Scanlan
Source: Eurovision Ireland, YouTube, EurovisionWorld

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