Albania

#PLAYING WITH NUMBERS: Semi-final Two draw

#PLAYING WITH NUMBERS: Semi-final Two draw

The 2021 Eurovision Song Contest is now starting to get exciting, now we’ve had the draw for the semi-finals. It’s always interesting to see who gets placed where. Will this crucial draw sink a song’s chances? Or will it boost the chances of one that was – up till today – a pleasant also-ran? You can see our look at the first semi-final HERE.

Well, at Eurovision Ireland we’ve looked at the patterns since the advent of two semi-finals in 2008. That’s twelve years worth of data. Whilst the song itself, as well as its staging and performance matter, there are certain areas within the draw that favour or disadvantage. When we’ve equalised all of the semi-finals to account for the different numbers of songs over the years, here’s what we’ve come up with. Just so you know, in some years, tenth didn’t always qualify due to a rule about a lower-down jury favourite qualifying instead. Here, we look at the songs that finished tenth or above.

(c) Eurovision Ireland

As you’ll see, early in the running order of the first semi-final doesn’t always bode well. In the twelve first semi-finals, the opening song has only finished tenth or above four times. There’s a dip around about song four, with the last couple of songs qualifying in 10 of the 12 first semi-finals.

Based on this prediction, it’s looking pretty good for Greece, Bulgaria, Switzerland and Denmark.

Qualification is looking likely for San Marino, Poland, Moldova, Portugal and Finland.

It’s touch and go for Iceland, Serbia, Albania and Latvia.

The unluckiest spots appear to be occupied by Estonia, the Czech Republic, Austria and Georgia.

Do you think there could be an upset this year? Will, say, Bulgaria fail and Iceland prosper? Tell us what you think.

Author: John Stanton

Source: Eurovision Ireland

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