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#PLAYING WITH NUMBERS: Semi-final One draw

#PLAYING WITH NUMBERS: Semi-final One draw

It’s been another important day on that road to Rotterdam: the draw for the semi-finals. It’s always interesting to see who gets placed where. Will this crucial draw sink a song’s chances? Or will it boost the chances of one that was – up till today – a pleasant also-ran?

Well, at Eurovision Ireland we’ve looked at the patterns since the advent of two semi-finals in 2008. That’s twelve years worth of data. Whilst the song itself, as well as its staging and performance matter, there are certain areas within the draw that favour or disadvantage. When we’ve equalised all of the semi-finals to account for the different numbers of songs over the years, here’s what we’ve come up with. Just so you know, in some years, tenth didn’t always qualify due to a rule about a lower-down jury favourite qualifying instead. Here, we look at the songs that finished tenth or above.

(c) Eurovision Ireland

As you’ll see, early in the running order of the first semi-final doesn’t always bode well. In the twelve first semi-finals, the opening song has only finished tenth or above four times. There’s a dip around about song four, with the last couple of songs qualifying in 10 of the 12 first semi-finals.

Based on this prediction, it’s looking pretty good for Cyprus, Israel, Ukraine and Malta.

Qualification is looking likely for Australia, North Macedonia, Norway and Belgium.

It’s touch and go for Slovenia, Ireland, Romania and Azerbaijan

The unluckiest spots appear to be occupied by Lithuania, Russia, Sweden and Croatia.

Do you think there could be an upset this year? Will, say, Israel fail and Sweden prosper? Tell us what you think.

Author: John Stanton

Source: Eurovision Ireland

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