Tonight’s the night! The Eurovision Song Contest 2023 officially begins with the First Semi Final coming to us live from bustling Liverpool at 21:00 CET on behalf of last year’s winners Ukraine – make sure you check your local listings to find out which channel is showing it!

Although it won’t be long till know who makes the cut, we know that Eurovision fans love to make their predictions and try to guess the results before the show ends. With hundreds of potential ways to work it out, we’re going to look at just 3 methods. Last year, each of these methods proved to be 70% accurate for the First Semi Final, so looks like there’s something in it!

According to these sources, which countries are heading to the final on Saturday? And whose dreams of Eurovision glory are about to come to an end? Let’s take a look:

YouTube

From the moment the national final season starts, YouTube is every Eurovision fan’s best friend! We use it to watch performances and listen to our favourites but as more songs get the attention of the press, more hits are gained from people who don’t usually follow the contest throughout the year! These stats were calculated from the number of views on the entry’s official videos – which means if a country released its music video only recently, they’re at an immediate disadvantage. But as for most people YouTube will be their first point of contact with a new Eurovision song, here’s who YouTube thinks will qualify:

1. Sweden
2. Israel
3. Czechia
4. Serbia
5. The Netherlands
6. Finland
7. Croatia
8. Switzerland
9. Malta
10. Azerbaijan

Betting Odds

Let’s face it, if money changes hands then bookies have to be on their game when working out who they think will make the cut! Betting Odds are a fascinating way to see which countries people think will get to Saturday night’s live final and are calculated on the likelihood of something happening. Ergo, countries like Sweden and Italy that usually place in the Top 10 each year will immediately have better odds than somewhere like North Macedonia. That being said, these odds shouldn’t be taken as fact and are not without risk… I always like to point out that in 2018, Cyprus started the year ranked 37th in the odds and sky rocketed up during rehearsals! At the moment, the book keepers of Europe and beyond think our scoreboard will look a little like this:

1. Finland
2. Sweden
3. Norway
4. Israel
5. Czechia
6. Moldova
7. Serbia
8. Switzerland
9. Croatia
10. Portugal

Past Qualification Rates

Past success is no guarantee of future success at Eurovision – but it also stands to reason that if country has been in the final more times than they haven’t, they clearly have more of an idea about how to get there! Every year we publish the qualification rates of Eurovision countries, updated to reflect the outcome of that year’s semi-finals, and they make for interesting reading… so based on the numbers, probability suggests these countries will get those last coveted spots in Europe’s favourite contest:

1. Sweden
2. Azerbaijan
3. Norway
4. Serbia
5. Moldova
6. Israel
7. Finland
8. Malta
9. The Netherlands
10. Ireland

Below is a table shows of all the countries taking part in Semi Final 1, marked with an (X) if they are thought to be among the qualifiers for the final according to any one method. Combined, the results look like this:

Combined, these stats suggest that Norway, Serbia, Israel, Sweden and Finland seem to be dead-certs to qualify for Saturday’s grand final, while The Netherlands, Czechia, Azerbaijan, Moldova, Switzerland, Croatia and Malta also appear in good stead. Portugal and Ireland might struggle, while only poor Latvia doesn’t feature in the Top 10 of any of these prediction methods.

What do you think? Does your own Top 10 look like any of these predictions? Do you think they’re on to something, or is it all rubbish? Only a few hours till we find out!

Author: James Scanlan
Source: Eurovision Ireland, Eurovision World, YouTube