The First Semi Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 is just around the corner, coming to us live from imperial Vienna, Austria, on Tuesday 12th May at 21:00PM CET (make sure you check your local listings to find out where you can watch!)

Soon enough we’ll know who makes the cut – but as we all know, Eurovision fans don’t hang about and aren’t backwards in coming forwards with their predictions and often pre-empt the announcement among themselves. There are dozens of ways to try and work it out, but here at Eurovision Ireland we have our 3 tried and tested methods to work out who is most likely to be present for Saturday night’s final. In the past, one of these methods predicted ALL of the qualifiers from the First Semi Final and the other two are generally at least 70% right every year– so there IS something in it!

According to these methods, which countries are likely to qualify and still be in with a chance to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2026? And conversely, whose dreams of Eurovision glory look like they’re about to be cut short? Let’s take a look:

YouTube

From the moment the national final season starts, YouTube is every Eurovision fan’s best friend! We use it to watch performances and listen to our favourites but as more songs get the attention of the press, more hits are gained from people who don’t usually follow the contest throughout the year! These stats were calculated from the number of views on the entry’s official videos – which means if a country released its music video only recently, they’re at an immediate disadvantage. But as for most people YouTube will be their first point of contact with a new Eurovision song, here’s who YouTube thinks will qualify:

1. Finland
2. Israel
3. Greece
4. Georgia
5. Serbia
6. Sweden
7. Belgium
8. Moldova
9. Poland
10. Croatia

Betting Odds

Let’s face it, when money changes hands the people overseeing it have to know what they’re talking about! Betting Odds are a fascinating way to see which countries people think will get to Saturday night’s live final and bookies calculate them on the likelihood of something happening. Ergo, countries like Sweden and Italy that usually place in the Top 10 each year will immediately have better odds than somewhere like North Macedonia… if they were taking part this year! That being said, these odds shouldn’t be taken as fact and are not without risk… I always like to point out that in 2018, Cyprus started the year ranked 37th in the odds and sky rocketed up during rehearsals! At the moment, the book keepers of Europe and beyond think our scoreboard will look a little like this:

1. Finland
2. Greece
3. Sweden
4. Israel
5. Moldova
6. Croatia
7. Serbia
8. Lithuania
9. Montenegro
10. Georgia

Past Qualification Rates

Past success is no guarantee of future success at Eurovision – remember that, dearest gentle reader! But it also stands to reason that if country has been in the final more times than they haven’t, they clearly have more of an idea about how to get there! Every year we publish the qualification rates of Eurovision countries, updated to reflect the outcome of that year’s semi-finals, and they make for interesting reading… so based on the numbers, probability suggests these countries will get those last coveted spots in Europe’s favourite contest:

1. Sweden
2. Greece
3. Serbia
4. Israel
5. Lithuania
6. Moldova
7. Finland
8. Portugal
9. Estonia
10. Poland

Below is a table shows of all the countries taking part in First Semi Final , marked with an (X) if they are thought to be among the qualifiers for the final according to any one method. Combined, the results look like this:

According to these metrics, 6 countries are practically guaranteed a spot in the Final: namely Moldova, Sweden, Greece, Finland, Israel and Serbia – all countries with strong qualification rates, high numbers of views on YouTube and songs that the bookies are favouring this year. The remaining 4 spots seem to be open for Croatia, Georgia, Lithuania and Poland, who each scored in the Top 10 of at least 2 metrics. Rather neatly, that leaves 5 entries for whom it seems Eurovision 2026 won’t be their year: Belgium, Portugal, Montenegro and Estonia. Only poor San Marino didn’t feature in the Top 10 of any metric! Can Boy George prove everyone wrong and get one of Eurovision’s smallest nations back into the final?

What do you think? Does your own Top 10 look like any of these predictions? Do you think we’re on to something here, or is it all nonsense? Not long now till we find out!

Author: James Scanlan
Source: Eurovision Ireland, Eurovision World, YouTube