Eurovision Semi Final draws : Who will qualify based on past results?

Running Order

Some of us here at Eurovision Ireland like our statistics. Go on, admit it, you like them too. What are big scores? Who gives points to whom? Who will miss that spot in the Grand Final.

We’ve looked at the draws for the semi-final allocations, and compared them with the results of all the semi-finals from 2004. Are you still there? By crunching a few numbers, we’ve come up with which countries might qualify for the Grand Final in Stockholm on 14 May. I’ve averaged out the points from one country to another. The scores beside the country names are a rough estimate using their averages over the years. Confused? Well, just go with it.

The first semi-final has 18 countries, so they’ve got a better than average chance of qualifying. France, Spain and Sweden will also vote. Looking out how votes have gone in the past, the ten qualifiers might be:

Russia (116)
Greece (116)
Azerbaijan (115)
Armenia (108)
Bosnia & Herzegovina (94)
Iceland (70)
Hungary (66)
Finland (65)
Croatia (51)
Malta (50)

Russia and Greece are very evenly matched, with Azerbaijan only a whisker behind. Croatia and Malta are also very close.

The unlucky countries might therefore be:

Moldova (47)
Cyprus (44)
Montenegro (41)
Estonia (40)
Netherlands (40)
San Marino (28)
Austria (19)
Czech Republic (7)

Obviously, there are many unknowns and this doesn’t take into account the eventual running order. And countries like the Czech Republic don’t really have much form, so a good result would move them up this order.

The second semi-final has that extra country, and Germany, Italy and the UK will vote here. On previous form, the ten qualifiers might be:

Serbia (111)
Ukraine (98)
Romania (94)
Norway (82)
Denmark (79)
Latvia (72)
Lithuania (70)
Georgia (67)
Albania (63)
Poland (60)

On previous results, Serbia would win this by a country mile. Ukraine and Romania could vie for second and third with Norway a distant fourth. The gap after Poland isn’t that great, resulting in a close dogfight for 10th-12th places. The unlucky countries from the semi-final would be:

Israel (55)
Macedonia (54)
Belarus (51)
Ireland (50)
Belgium (46)
Slovenia (45)
Switzerland (33)
Australia (0)

An obvious one is that Australia has never participated in a semi-final, so they’ll be the chief unknown quantity here. Ireland may struggle, but they are not that far off a final place.

Remember that this is purely based on voting patters over the years in the Semi Finals and cannot take into consideration the quality of the songs that will come our way now and in the next few weeks – so relax!


So let us know what you think. Will this be the how things shake up? Or will there be a curved ball from the Czech Republic and Switzerland?

Author: John Stanton

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