Eurovision 2014

Can YouTube Hits Predict the Eurovision 2014 Winner? We Look At the Movers and Shakers

ESC2014 logo Copenhagen

ESC2014 logo Copenhagen
Eurovision.tv/EBU

 

National finals are over and now we are down to the real business of seeing what songs people are looking at on Youtube as we wait for the Eurovision Finals. However can we see any trends that are taking place and what songs are the big movers and shakers on what we like to call the “Eurovision YouTube Countdown” and more importantly could this be how you can spot a winner?

After the National Finals season is over the first thing that happens is the Head of Delegations meeting in the host city where all countries have to hand in their songs and preview videos. Nowadays we do not have long to wait until all the videos are available on the official Eurovision.tv YouTube channel. We than have the chance to watch them as many times as we like. It soon becomes apparent that some videos are watched a lot more than others either because of the song, the country or even the video content itself.

 

Can You Predict The Eurovision Winner From the YouTube Hits? Photo : computimesinc

Can You Predict The Eurovision Winner From the YouTube Hits? Photo : computimesinc

 

The statistics of this are sometimes a good way of looking at current favourites and how well some of the songs might do
come May in Copenhagen. After reading an article from our sister website at esctoday.com looking at the viewing statistics I felt it would be a good idea to keep track of the figures to see if any trends may develop over the coming weeks.
A good way to keep an eye on any movers and shakers either upwards or down. The previous statistics were taken last Sunday 23rd March and I have checked the figures again on Thursday 27th March.

 

Country
Views +/-
1 Armenia 1296823
2 Austria 709018
3 Montenegro 583523
4 United Kingdom 379678
5 Italy 350265
6 Azerbaijan 333817
7 Spain 311963  +1
8 Israel 288180  -1
9 Romania 224201
10 FYR Macedonia 187785
11 Ukraine 183773  +1
12 Hungary 153179  -1
13 Poland 134662  +2
14 San Marino 117936  -1
15 Lithuania 115721  -1
16 Ireland 107641
17 Sweden 98973  +5
18 Greece 97823  -1
19 Netherlands 87753  +1
20 Albania 87223  -2
21 France 83230  +4
22 Georgia 79885  -3
23 Belarus 76345  -2
24 Iceland 73812  -1
25 Germany 71176  +2
26 Norway 70345  -2
27 Slovenia 60658  -1
28 Estonia 58806  +2
29 Moldova 58634  -1
30 Malta 56007  +1
31 Belgium 54864  -2
32 Portugal 53759
33 Switzerland 51139
34 Latvia 40537
35 Russia 36741  +2
36 Finland 31471
37 Denmark 29524 -2

 

So onto our movers and shakers for this week

 

 

 

Sweden are our biggest riser of the week moving up 5 places from the previous position. Sanna Neilson is a big fan favourite given her previous attempts at trying for Eurovision so that combined with Sweden generally being a favourite among fans would probably explain this one as there is nothing outstanding or wacky about the video itself.

 

Our second biggest riser is France who move up 4 places with the dead catchy Moustache and what is a really fun video too. I can see this doing rather well come May as it is a sure fire summer hit.

 

 

 

There are four countries who have moved up 2 places, Poland, Germany, Estonia and Russia. Poland is already a big hit previously and Germany is definitely one of those growers that is gaining good support. Estonia is being seen by some as a potential dark horse for victory and the dance routine is worth the watch in itself while Russia has only been published for
2 days and is more than likely going to jump up the rankings further as people get round to watching it, whether it will reflect it’s true potential, I am not so sure.

 

 

Also moving up one place are Spain, Ukraine, Netherlands and Malta. I can see the potential in all but Ukraine whom I think is gaining views based on the song being massively revamped for Eurovision.

 

Of course as well as risers we have to have songs falling down the ratings

 

The biggest of those is Georgia dropping 3 places and rather surprisingly Norway, Belgium and Denmark who all fall 2 places along with Belarus and Albania. To be fair to Denmark it has also only been published for a much shorter time on Eurovision.tv than all the others bar Russia. But Norway and Belgium are both considered favourites song wise therefore I can only conclude that people are finding those videos rather bland.

 

There is very little movement in the top 10, the exception being Spain swapping places with Israel at 7 and 8. But looking more closely at the top 5 and the percentage of hits from one poll to the next it shows up something.

 

1. Armenia 1,296,823 (9.93%)

2. Austria 709,018 (24.67%)

3. Montenegro 583,523 (9.64%)

4. United Kingdom 379,678 (8.43%)

5. Italy 350,265 (13.60%)

 

 

 

 

What this shows is that of the top 5, Austria is increasing its hits at the highest rate in comparison to their previous views total and Italy is 2nd highest. Well that’s it for now chewing over the facts and figures, analysing the movers and shakers and also
at the same time taking time to watch some of the videos along the way.  I shall return again next week to see if the picture has changed dramatically for any of our songs. Do you agree with any of our thoughts and have you watched all the videos yet?
You can watch all the videos HERE in our Eurovision One Stop Candy Shop
Author Andrew James Main

 

Source : EurovisionIreland.net/Andrew Main

 

 

 

 

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8 replies »

  1. Austria is the second most watched youtube, she has 5505 I like … but I do not like 6561 … No matter how many times one sees, also people like or do not like …

  2. Fun to play around with the viewing statistics!! This year it’s really hard to tell and I don’t think they’ll be correct.. Aram’s video is well made with a plotline and that might be drawing in viewers.

  3. I think if you want to do meaningful statistics, you will need to include all the videos uploaded for each country. Sweden has around half a million views in total on the two vides that come up if you search “Sweden eurovision 2014” and Denmark has more than a mill. as the video just called “Basim – Cliché Love Song” has 1.1 million views alone. But I guess the point has been made by now 🙂

  4. claro que no son importantes.. pero en este caso de verdad la canción de Armenia me gusta. Y estaré feliz si gana….

  5. For me, official videos mean nothing when it comes to Eurovision – the winner is the one that performs on two nights LIVE! The only YouTube vids that mean anything to me are those showing live performances as these give me some indication of how they might perform in Copenhagen.

    On that basis, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, UK and Spain have already come across amazingly well. When everyone produces a live performance video, I’ll have a better idea of who will win 🙂

  6. Yes indeed Basim will have lots of views elsewhere, This survey is only looking at the views on the official Eurovision.tv YouTube channel and as I have pointed out Denmark’s preview video was downloaded onto it second last, for some reason, thereby giving most of the others a head start.

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