Eurovision National Finals 2013

OGAE Predictions/Votes – What can they tell us?

Eurovision Predictions. (Photograph courtesy of greenbookblog)

Eurovision Predictions. (Photograph courtesy of greenbookblog)

The OGAE Clubs or as it is known in French the  – Organisation Générale des Amateurs de l’Eurovision, ( we love a bit of French) is a group of fan clubs spread throughout Europe & the world that are dedicated to the competition we all love – The Eurovision Song Contest.Created in 1984 in Finland, members have been voting annually in their respective clubs sense 2007 upon whom they think will win the Eurovision title that year.

You will have noticed that we have been bringing you the current results as they are coming in here on Eurovision Ireland as they happen.

With a group of fans dedicated to the contest, with a wide variety of tastes and style of music throughout Europe and beyond, surely the result of the OGAE vote would be accurate in comparison with the actual result of that years respective contest ?
Here we bring you a brief review of the last 2 years of OGAE voting in comparison with the actual results of the Eurovision.

I’m going to concentrate solely on the Top Ten in each vote,

2011 – Host Country – Germany

OGAE TOP TEN                                             EUROVISION RESULT
1.  Hungary                                                           1. Azerbaijan
2.  France                                                              2. Italy
3. United Kingdom                                           3. Sweden
4. Sweden                                                             4. Ukraine
5. Estonia                                                              5. Denmark
6. Bosnia & Herzegovina                                 6. Bosnia & Herzegovina
7. Azerbaijan                                                        7. Greece
8. Denmark                                                           8. Ireland
9. Germany                                                           9. Georgia
10. Norway                                                         10. Germany

Straight away we can see that the OGAE vote is dramatically different then the actual Eurovision result with only five of the OGAE top ten charting in the Eurovision top ten, and with only one of those five, Sweden finishing in the top five. Norway which caused great shock to fans in 2011 (don’t mention TV technicalities) failed to even qualify for the final and charted at tenth place on the OGAE chart.

Hungary was a firm fan favourite from the start of the contest but only managed to score 53pts from Europe in the final finishing in 22nd place. France was a fan and bookies favourite before the contest but again on the night with it’s (lets be fair) lack lustre performance it failed to live up to the favourite tag and finished 15th in the final on 82pts. Blue represented the United Kingdom in 2011 and their popularity from their fame as one of the UK’s biggest boy bands materialized well with the OGAE vote but Europe didn’t feel the love for Blue and they finished 11th in the final.

One thing that’s different in terms of the OGAE vote and the actual Eurovision vote, is that the highly controversial talked about subject of neighbourly voting doesn’t tend to happen with the OGAE fans. They vote for what they think is the best song and maybe if there was no televoting a more reflective “expert” vote would become realistic.

2012 – Host Country – Azerbaijan 

OGAE TOP TEN                                                      EUROVISION RESULT
1.  Sweden                                                           1. Sweden
2.  Italy                                                                 2. Russia
3.  Iceland                                                            3. Serbia
4. Serbia                                                               4. Azerbaijan
5. Norway                                                             5. Albania
6. Spain                                                                 6. Estonia
7. Cyprus                                                               7. Turkey
8. Estonia                                                              8. Germany
9. Germany                                                           9. Italy
10. France                                                           10. Spain

Last year there was no doubting who was going to win the contest with Sweden’s Euphoria an overwhelming favourite from the start and triumphing not only on the night of the final but with the OGAE vote also. Russia finishing 2nd in the contest considered by some to be the gimmick act of 2012 didn’t score highly with the OGAE fans, failing to make the top ten – but does this highlight the fact that the so called “gimmick” act will always stand a chance of winning the contest (is this good news for Greece this year?)
The traditional OGAE fan doesn’t really tend to support the “gimmick” act in the contest, cast your minds back to Ireland and Spain’s entry’s in Belgrade in 2008 when boo’s could be heard in the audience after each performance.

Italy again a firm fan favourite was a strong contender for the title but what may have sounded great in the arena on the night it didn’t materialize on TV on the night – finishing in 9th place. France (I think it was the video that got it to tenth in the OGAE vote) also failed to translate that result on the night finishing in 22nd place with a mere 21pts. Norway finished last in the final but charted highly on the OGAE vote in 5th place.

 

When looking at the OGAE vote fans are voting on what videos are released for each entry prior to the contest and yes some of these are the performances from their own national finals but editing is a great tool, and what we hear and see doesn’t always translate well in the live final.

With a total of five from 2011 and six countries from 2012 in the OGAE vote reaching the actual top ten on the night of the Eurovision final, what does this mean for this years entries…..? the current top ten is listed as follows,

  1. Denmark – 212 Points
  2. San Marino – 159 Points
  3. Norway – 154 Points
  4. Germany – 102 Points
  5. Italy – 99 Points
  6. United Kingdom – 84 Points
  7. The Netherlands – 77 Points
  8. Ukraine  – 72 Points
  9. Russia – 53 Points
  10. Sweden – 50 Points 

With live vocals / neighbourly voting / a good stand out performance & the annual “gimmick act” at the moment the statistics show that half of this current top ten could be very disappointed on the night of the final.
And as OGAE is a fantastic club for fans to meet and socialize about all things Eurovision with great community spirit – their final top ten should be reviewed cautiously as a guideline / feel for what’s on offer this year & not to worry if your country has failed to score yet in the OGAE Vote, apparently there’s over 100 million viewers that may disagree with it.

Author and Guest Writer Stephen Hardiman

Sources OGAE/Wikipedia and Eurovision Ireland. YouTube Videos courtesy of embedded owners

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1 reply »

  1. Nice piece however I don’t really see Greece 2013 as a gimmick or novelty act whatsoever. Am sure they don’t either. Fair enough the title of the song may be taken as that but Madness, one of the most successful UK bands over the past 30 years have had titles like this and one would hardly call them a gimmick or novelty act. There are some great ska and almost klezmer elements to the Greek entry which make it musically sound imo. (I love listening to bands like The Balkan Alien Sound & The Underscore Orkestra. Greece 2013 fits perfectly in this genre.) If anything is a gimmick entry this year it is Finland tapping into the whole ‘gay marriage’ thing sweeping the world and with it’s pseudo-lesbian kiss.

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