The Eurovision Song Contest 2023 continues tonight with the Second Semi Final, live from the pride of England’s north west, Liverpool! Hosting on behalf of last year’s winners Ukraine, join in all the fun from 21:00 CET – check your local listings to find out which channel is showing it!

Although it won’t be long till know who makes the cut, we know that Eurovision fans love to make their predictions and try to guess the results before the show ends. With hundreds of potential ways to work it out, we’re going to look at just 3 methods. Last year, each of these methods proved to be 60% accurate for the Second Semi Final – with one being 90% right!! As for the 2023 First Semi Final on Tuesday night, one method predicted all 10 qualifiers perfectly! You can figure out which method it was HERE

According to these sources, which countries will make up our last 10 competitors for Saturday? And who looks like they’re about to fall at the last hurdle? Let’s take a look:

YouTube

From the moment the national final season starts, YouTube is every Eurovision fan’s best friend! We use it to watch performances and listen to our favourites but as more songs get the attention of the press, more hits are gained from people who don’t usually follow the contest throughout the year! These stats were calculated from the number of views on the entry’s official videos – which means if a country released its music video only recently, they’re at an immediate disadvantage. But as for most people YouTube will be their first point of contact with a new Eurovision song, here’s who YouTube thinks will qualify:

1. Armenia
2. Austria
3. Australia
4. Georgia
5. Lithuania
6. Slovenia
7. Romania
8. Greece
9. Poland
10. Cyprus

Betting Odds

Let’s face it, if money changes hands then bookies have to be on their game when working out who they think will make the cut! Betting Odds are a fascinating way to see which countries people think will get to Saturday night’s live final and are calculated on the likelihood of something happening. Ergo, countries like Sweden and Italy that usually place in the Top 10 each year will immediately have better odds than somewhere like North Macedonia. That being said, these odds shouldn’t be taken as fact and are not without risk… I always like to point out that in 2018, Cyprus started the year ranked 37th in the odds and sky rocketed up during rehearsals! At the moment, the book keepers of Europe and beyond think our scoreboard will look a little like this:

1. Austria
2. Australia
3. Cyprus
4. Armenia
5. Slovenia
6. Lithuania
7. Georgia
8. Belgium
9. Poland
10. Estonia

Past Qualification Rates

Past success is no guarantee of future success at Eurovision – but it also stands to reason that if country has been in the final more times than they haven’t, they clearly have more of an idea about how to get there! Every year we publish the qualification rates of Eurovision countries, updated to reflect the outcome of that year’s semi-finals, and they make for interesting reading… so based on the numbers, probability suggests these countries will get those last coveted spots in Europe’s favourite contest:

1. Greece
2. Australia
3. Romania
4. Armenia
5. Denmark
6. Iceland
7. Lithuania
8. Cyprus
9. Albania
10. Austria

Below is a table shows of all the countries taking part in Semi Final 2, marked with an (X) if they are thought to be among the qualifiers for the final according to any one method. Combined, the results look like this:

According to these stats, Armenia, Cyprus, Austria, Lithuania and Australia should all breeze into the Grand Final. Romania, Greece, Poland, Slovenia and Georgia also might be in with a shout, while Albania, Iceland, Belgium, Estonia and Denmark could be in trouble. Much like Latvia in the last semi final, poor San Marino aren’t featured in the Top 10 of any of these prediction methods.

What do you think? Does your own Top 10 look like any of these predictions? Do you think they’re on to something, or is it all rubbish? Only a few hours till we find out!

Author: James Scanlan
Source: Eurovision Ireland, Eurovision World, YouTube