We are just days away from the First Semi Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024, coming to us live from cool Malmö, Sweden on Tuesday 7th May at 21:00PM CET (make sure you check your local listings to find out where you can watch!)

Although soon enough we’ll know who makes the cut, if there’s one thing Eurovision fans are known for it’s their love of trying to predict who is going to top the scoreboard before it happens. There are dozens of ways to try and calculate it, but as always we’ll look at just 3 methods to see if we can work out who is most likely to be present for Saturday night’s final. Last year, one of these methods predicted ALL of the qualifiers from the First Semi Final while the other two were both 70% right – so there is something in it!

According to these sources, which countries will qualify and still have a chance to win the Eurovision Song Contest? And whose dreams of Eurovision glory look likely to go unfulfilled? Let’s take a look:

YouTube

From the moment the national final season starts, YouTube is every Eurovision fan’s best friend! We use it to watch performances and listen to our favourites but as more songs get the attention of the press, more hits are gained from people who don’t usually follow the contest throughout the year! These stats were calculated from the number of views on the entry’s official videos – which means if a country released its music video only recently, they’re at an immediate disadvantage. But as for most people YouTube will be their first point of contact with a new Eurovision song, here’s who YouTube thinks will qualify:

1. Ukraine
2. Poland
3. Lithuania
4. Cyprus
5. Croatia
6. Slovenia
7. Ireland
8. Australia
9. Portugal
10. Moldova

Betting Odds

Let’s face it, when money changes hands the people overseeing it have to know what they’re talking about! Betting Odds are a fascinating way to see which countries people think will get to Saturday night’s live final and bookies calculate them on the likelihood of something happening. Ergo, countries like our hosts Sweden and Italy that usually place in the Top 10 each year will immediately have better odds than somewhere like North Macedonia… if they were taking part this year! That being said, these odds shouldn’t be taken as fact and are not without risk… I always like to point out that in 2018, Cyprus started the year ranked 37th in the odds and sky rocketed up during rehearsals! At the moment, the book keepers of Europe and beyond think our scoreboard will look a little like this:

1. Croatia
2. Ukraine
3. Lithuania
4. Finland
5. Luxembourg
6. Ireland
7. Poland
8. Cyprus
9. Portugal
10. Serbia

Past Qualification Rates

Past success is no guarantee of future success at Eurovision – remember that, dear reader! But it also stands to reason that if country has been in the final more times than they haven’t, they clearly have more of an idea about how to get there! Every year we publish the qualification rates of Eurovision countries, updated to reflect the outcome of that year’s semi-finals, and they make for interesting reading… so based on the numbers, probability suggests these countries will get those last coveted spots in Europe’s favourite contest:

1. Ukraine
2. Australia
3. Azerbaijan
4. Serbia
5. Moldova
6. Lithuania
7. Cyprus
8. Finland
9. Iceland
10. Croatia

Below is a table shows of all the countries taking part in Semi Final 1, marked with an (X) if they are thought to be among the qualifiers for the final according to any one method. Combined, the results look like this:

According to our methods, Cyprus, Lithuania, Ukraine and Croatia are all very likely qualifiers for Saturday night’s final, ranking in all of these Top 10s. Serbia, Ireland, Poland, Finland, Moldova, Australia and Portugal all featured in two, which suggests they are all in with a shout too – though if we already have our 4 dead certs, then one of these countries will have to miss out! At the other end of the scale, Slovenia, Iceland, Azerbaijan and Luxembourg look like they’ll have a much harder path to follow to get to Saturday night. But it’s worth bearing in mind that Luxembourg only came back this year, so immediately couldn’t place in Previous Qualification Rates!

What do you think? Does your own Top 10 look like any of these predictions? Do you think they’re on to something, or is it all rubbish? Only a few hours till we find out!

Author: James Scanlan
Source: Eurovision Ireland, Eurovision World, YouTube