The First Semi Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 is just around the corner, coming to us live from hip Basel, Switzerland on Tuesday 13th May at 21:00PM CET (make sure you check your local listings to find out where you can watch!)

Soon enough we’ll know who makes the cut, but we all know Eurovision fans like to be ahead of the curve and try to predict the results before they’re announced. While there are dozens of ways to try and work out who is going to climb the scoreboard, we here at Eurovision Ireland use 3 tried and tested methods to work out who is most likely to be present for Saturday night’s final. In the past, one of these methods predicted ALL of the qualifiers from the First Semi Final and the other two are generally at least 70% right – so there is something in it!

According to these methods, which countries are likely to qualify and still be in with a chance to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2025? And conversely, whose dreams of Eurovision glory look likely to sadly be just that? Let’s take a look:

YouTube

From the moment the national final season starts, YouTube is every Eurovision fan’s best friend! We use it to watch performances and listen to our favourites but as more songs get the attention of the press, more hits are gained from people who don’t usually follow the contest throughout the year! These stats were calculated from the number of views on the entry’s official videos – which means if a country released its music video only recently, they’re at an immediate disadvantage. But as for most people YouTube will be their first point of contact with a new Eurovision song, here’s who YouTube thinks will qualify:

1. Sweden
2. Estonia
3. Poland
4. Netherlands
5. Cyprus
6. Azerbaijan
7. Ukraine
8. Albania
9. Portugal
10. Norway

Betting Odds

Let’s face it, when money changes hands the people overseeing it have to know what they’re talking about! Betting Odds are a fascinating way to see which countries people think will get to Saturday night’s live final and bookies calculate them on the likelihood of something happening. Ergo, countries like our hosts Sweden and Italy that usually place in the Top 10 each year will immediately have better odds than somewhere like North Macedonia… if they were taking part this year! That being said, these odds shouldn’t be taken as fact and are not without risk… I always like to point out that in 2018, Cyprus started the year ranked 37th in the odds and sky rocketed up during rehearsals! At the moment, the book keepers of Europe and beyond think our scoreboard will look a little like this:

1. Sweden
2. Estonia
3. Ukraine
4. Netherlands
5. Albania
6. Norway
7. Cyprus
8. Poland
9. Belgium
10. San Marino

Past Qualification Rates

Past success is no guarantee of future success at Eurovision – remember that, dear reader! But it also stands to reason that if country has been in the final more times than they haven’t, they clearly have more of an idea about how to get there! Every year we publish the qualification rates of Eurovision countries, updated to reflect the outcome of that year’s semi-finals, and they make for interesting reading… so based on the numbers, probability suggests these countries will get those last coveted spots in Europe’s favourite contest:

1. Ukraine
2. Sweden
3. Norway
4. Azerbaijan
5. Cyprus
6. Albania
7. Iceland
8. Croatia
9. Estonia
10. Netherlands

Below is a table shows of all the countries taking part in Semi Final 1, marked with an (X) if they are thought to be among the qualifiers for the final according to any one method. Combined, the results look like this:

According to our methods, 7 countries are going to walk into the final, receiving the perfect sweep of appearing in the Top 10 of all metrics – so Saturday night’s line up should feature Eurovision royalty Sweden and Ukraine (let’s face it, it would be more bizarre if they weren’t on the list!!) alongside Estonia, Norway, Albania, the Netherlands and Cyprus no problem. Poland and Azerbaijan are the next highest placing, appearing in the Top 10 of both at least 2 metrics – but this is where it gets interesting… that theoretical last spot in the final and who gets it is fairly open (read bloodbath!!) Iceland, Portugal, Belgium, San Marino and Croatia all featured in at least one Top 10, meaning they all seem to be in with a shot to battle it out for that remaining spot – only Slovenia didn’t make it into any of the Top 10s and so sadly look like they may struggle to reach Saturday’s final.

What do you think? Does your own Top 10 look like any of these predictions? Do you think we’re on to something here, or is it all hokum? Not long now till we find out!

Author: James Scanlan
Source: Eurovision Ireland, Eurovision World, YouTube