Eurovision 2014 Semi Final Running Order. Photograph courtesy of EBU

The running order for both Semi Finals at this year’s Eurovision Song Contest has been announced. As the song says “The Winner Takes It All” and it starts right here in the Semi Finals. Some countries may be changing their travel arrangements following today’s running order so maybe check lastminute.com for some new Copenhagen vacancies.

As like last year the running order was selected by DR (Eurovision Host Broadcaster) and then was approved by Jon Ola Sand – the Executive Supervisor –  and Dr Frank Dieter Freiling – Chairman of the Reference Group. The countries will perform in the following order.

Semifinal 1

1. Armenia
2. Latvia
3. Estonia
4. Sweden
5. Iceland
6. Albania
7. Russia
8. Azerbaijan
9. Ukraine
10. Belgium
11. Moldova
12. San Marino
13. Portugal
14. The Netherlands
15. Montenegro
16. Hungary

Semifinal 2

1. Malta
2. Israel
3. Norway
4. Georgia
5. Poland
6. Austria
7. Lithuania
8. Finland
9. Ireland
10. Belarus
11. F.Y.R. Macedonia
12. Switzerland
13. Greece
14. Slovenia
15. Romania

Initial Thoughts

This is the first real chance for everyone to become a pundit and talk with conviction like they have a crystal ball. Mystic Meg is in demand as we speak. Expect Facebook and Twitter to go into meltdown for the next few days as people digest the winners and losers in the running order – but remember “running order has no impact on the result” according to the experts. Nobody is going to spoil our fun with that statement! So prepare to have people tell you that you are wrong in your analysis. It is “Eurovision Speculation Open Season”.

Well we need to take into consideration that there will possibly be 2 tv advertisement breaks during each of the semi finals so there maybe a break in the songs at possibly 6th and 13th places.

Semi Final 1

Interesting to put the favourite with the betting odds first. Armenia being the current favourite will be of interest to the public so I would have put it later in the first half this semi final. You don’t play your best hand first in a game of poker do you? This will though not affect Aram MP3 in qualifying.

Estonia now pops out more in the first half of the draw tham it did before. Sweden benefits from being sandwiched between 2 uptempo songs. I would even go as to say that Iceland have seen their chances increase for qualification as they will now be remembered being between Albania and Sweden. Latvia I fear will get swallowed up which is a shame.

Russia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine all after each other is another interesting prospect. If they are the first 3 songs that come after a tv break then the one song that appears to be sounding weaker is Russia.

Belgium, Moldova and San Marino again is an interesting proposition. This could see a lull in the pace of the running order which could see a drop in their instant appeal. Portugal will come on as an injection of pace in the running order. However when I listened to both San Marino and Portugal side by side you may enjoy the change in pace but the current version of the Portuguese song does sound that it is lacking depth in the base. Change that and they could see their chances of qualification increasing ever so slightly. They are still last with the betting odds.

The Netherlands, Montenegro and Hungary. For me the country that benefits the most from this draw is Montenegro. It is not sung in English and with its ethnic flavours makes this one more memorable. It has gone from 36th to 22nd favourite today. This could be Montenegro’s year to qualify. I think Hungary would have had no problem in qualifying from any position. Being last is good for them. Though uptempo, the subject matter of the song will be a talking point for tv commentators. The Netherlands is an unknown quantity for me at the moment. Personally I like the song but country is a genre of music that has failed to make any real impression on Eurovision – which is a shame. The Dutch result I think will come down to their staging in Copenhagen.

Interesting Positions – Armenia, Russia/Azerbaijan, Belgium/Moldova/San Marino

Good Draw – Estonia, Iceland, Ukraine, Montenegro, Portugal and Hungary

Challenging Draw – Latvia, Albania, Russia and San Marino

Semi Final 2

Malta opening this Semi Final is a good start to the show. This will sit well with an energised audience in the hall and I think just increased their chances of making the Grand Final again.

Followed by Israel and Norway I think this hinders Israel’s chances for qualification. Norway will certainly shine between these two songs for its simplicity.

Georgia/Poland/Austria – Well what a variety for the Eurovision viewer! You could not put three song side by side that sound nothing like each other in genre, tempo or performance. You have to say that all 3 countries side by side increases their chances of being remembered and ultimately getting closer to qualifying. If I had to pick the biggest winner here I would say Austria.

Lithuania/Finland/Ireland – Well before the draw most people had not favoured Lithuania’s chances of qualifying. However they tend to surprise at the Semi Finals. I still think this is a hard sell of a song but I would not be surprised if this could sneak into the final.

Finland and Ireland – now this is an interesting placing. 19th and 17th favourites in the betting rankings respectively, they actually neither add or detract from each other. That though maybe a hinderance as they could have been separated from each other to showcase them more.

Belarus comes next. Depending on the staging of the song Belarus could find themselves suffering as being seen in a Robin Thicke frame of mind and surrounded by uptempo songs could miss out on the final.

FYR Macedonia/Switzerland/Greece – Well Switzerland could be in trouble of being swallowed up by two powerful and memorable songs on either side of it. I think people will compare Switzerland and Malta to each other in style and Malta having a strong song and opening slot will be more remembered.

Slovenia – I think even getting a late draw will not stand out enough to qualify for the grand final. Especially now that they are followed by Paula and Ovi from Romania (whose odds have slipped to 8th) will still finish this semi final on a high note that will make people remember it more.

Interesting Positions – Georgia/Poland/Austria that will make the tv viewing audience open their eyes. Finland/Ireland could have been separated to showcase them more

Good Draw – Malta, Norway, FYR Macedonia, Greece and Romania

Challenging Draw – Israel, Belarus and Switzerland.

So there are our initial thoughts, permutations and points of view based on the performances that we have seen so far. As you all know a lot can happen when a song makes it to the Eurovision Stage. One name highlights that  – “Moje 3”. Opinions made here will probably go out the window once a choreographer and stylist either makes or breaks a country’s Eurovision Dreams!

So who do you now think has had their potential chances of qualification increased or challenged?

What running order would you have made if you were in the shoes of DR?

Author/Editor in Chief Garrett Mulhall

Source : EBU and Eurovision Ireland