If one semi final wasn’t enough, the Second Semi Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025 continues all the fun and spectacle leading up to Saturday’s grand final. This year, the show will be coming to us live from charming Basel, Switzerland on Thursday 15th May at 21:00PM CET (make sure you check your local listings to find out where you can watch!)

Soon enough we’ll know who makes the cut, but we all know Eurovision fans like to be ahead of the curve and try to predict the results before they’re announced. While there are dozens of ways to try and work out who is going to climb the scoreboard, we here at Eurovision Ireland use 3 tried and tested methods to work out who is most likely to be present for Saturday night’s final. In the past, one of these methods predicted ALL of the qualifiers from the First Semi Final and the other two are generally at least 70% right – so there is something in it!

According to these methods, which countries are likely to qualify and still be in with a chance to win the Eurovision Song Contest 2025? And conversely, whose dreams of Eurovision glory look likely to sadly be just that? Let’s take a look:

YouTube

From the moment the national final season starts, YouTube is every Eurovision fan’s best friend! We use it to watch performances and listen to our favourites but as more songs get the attention of the press, more hits are gained from people who don’t usually follow the contest throughout the year! These stats were calculated from the number of views on the entry’s official videos – which means if a country released its music video only recently, they’re at an immediate disadvantage. But as for most people YouTube will be their first point of contact with a new Eurovision song, here’s who YouTube thinks will qualify:

1. Austria
2. Malta
3. Finland
4. Israel
5. Serbia
6. Luxembourg
7. Lithuania
8. Australia
9. Czechia
10. Denmark

Betting Odds

Let’s face it, when money changes hands the people overseeing it have to know what they’re talking about! Betting Odds are a fascinating way to see which countries people think will get to Saturday night’s live final and bookies calculate them on the likelihood of something happening. Ergo, countries like our hosts Sweden and Italy that usually place in the Top 10 each year will immediately have better odds than somewhere like North Macedonia… if they were taking part this year! That being said, these odds shouldn’t be taken as fact and are not without risk… I always like to point out that in 2018, Cyprus started the year ranked 37th in the odds and sky rocketed up during rehearsals! At the moment, the book keepers of Europe and beyond think our scoreboard will look a little like this:

1. Finland
2. Austria
3. Israel
4. Malta
5. Czechia
6. Australia
7. Lithuania
8. Greece
9. Luxembourg
10. Serbia

Past Qualification Rates

Past success is no guarantee of future success at Eurovision – remember that, dear reader! But it also stands to reason that if country has been in the final more times than they haven’t, they clearly have more of an idea about how to get there! Every year we publish the qualification rates of Eurovision countries, updated to reflect the outcome of that year’s semi-finals, and they make for interesting reading… so based on the numbers, probability suggests these countries will get those last coveted spots in Europe’s favourite contest:

1. Luxembourg
2. Greece
3. Armenia
4. Serbia
5. Australia
6. Israel
7. Lithuania
8. Finland
9. Denmark
10. Austria

Below is a table shows of all the countries taking part in Semi Final 2, marked with an (X) if they are thought to be among the qualifiers for the final according to any one method. Combined, the results look like this:

Much like the other semi final in Basel, 7 countries rank in the Top 10 for each of these metrics, suggesting an easy road into Saturday’s Grand Final for Australia, Austria, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Israel, Serbia and Finland. Slightly further down the list, Czechia, Denmark, Greece and Malta all appear in at least two sets of Top 10s meaning they theoretically round out the list of qualifiers. While the First Semi Final was far more open for the lower spots, the Second Semi Final seems much less forgiving. Instead of just one country, here we see 4 countries failing to reaching any of the Top 10 metrics – suggesting Montenegro, Ireland, Latvia and Georgia will struggle to get out of the semi final on Thursday. Armenia also seem to have an outside chance, reaching only the Top 10 based on previous qualification rates.

What do you think? Does your own Top 10 look like any of these predictions? Do you think we’re on to something here, or is it all hokum? Not long now till we find out!

Author: James Scanlan
Source: Eurovision Ireland, Eurovision World, YouTube